Who’s going to win next year’s General Election?

The dust has settled on the 2014 election of Bromley Borough Councillors, and we’re 8 months away from a General Election so here at Village News we thought it time to look back on the results and look forward to next year.

Of the 60 seats up for grabs, the Conservatives gained 51, Labour gained 7, and UKIP appeared on the map for the first time – with 2. Compared to 2010, the Conservatives lost 2 seats, Labour won 4 and the Liberal Democrats were wiped out, losing all four of their seats.

Even with the lure of European elections being held on the same day, turnout was low, between 34.85% in Cray Valley West ward and 48.44% in Darwin ward. In an otherwise fairly predictable London Borough, these two wards had some of the action. In Cray Valley West the lower turnout helped UKIP with their two seats coming from here at the expense of the Conservatives. UKIP appear to have gained votes from all parties, especially the Liberal Democrats, whose three candidates went from second places in 2010 to last, save the BNP candidate. The Liberal Democrats' average number of votes in Cray Valley West was 226, compared to 1,712 in 2010. Darwin ward was where deselected Conservative, Peter Bloomfield, stood as an Independent in 2010 and came within 67 votes of beating his replacement. This time, the Conservative candidate won convincingly.

Overall, the 2014 election was a disaster for the Liberal Democrats. In 2010, of the 22 wards, the Conservatives won all the available seats in 18 of them. Of these 18, the Liberal Democrats were second in 13 of them. In 2014, the Conservatives also won all the available seats in 18 wards. However, this time the Liberal Democrats were second in none of them. UKIP were second in 14 of them despite not fielding a full 60 candidates, and Labour in the remaining 4. In 2014 the Liberal Democrats managed to have a candidate in last position in 18 of the 22 wards. A disastrous result for the third, and now, in Bromley at least, the fourth largest political party.

As for the four Village News wards, Bickley retains 3 Conservative Councillors, Chislehurst retains 3 Conservative Councillors, Mottingham & Chislehurst North retains 2 Conservative Councillors and Petts Wood & Knoll retains 3 Conservative Councillors.

In Chislehurst ward, 16 ballot papers were rejected for, “being unmarked or wholly void for uncertainty.” However, here at Village News we don’t think that the re-elected Chislehurst Councillors will be too bothered, with the fourth placed candidate over 1,000 votes behind.

The full list of Village News Councillors can be found on the Councillors page under “Useful Contacts.”

How does all this bode for next year’s General Election? It seems that as elections become less predictable and therefore more exciting there are, conversely, fewer electors willing to vote with the percentage turnout trend continuing its downward path.

There are several factors to take into consideration as we write.

1. Scotland. In a week’s time we will know the result of the referendum on independence. It may be that this side of the border we just shrug and say, “whatever,” but although the negative ramifications of a small country (higher tax, higher food bills, currency exchange-rate turmoil – see Norway – where the price of a pint is around £6.78, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden etc.) will hit the Scots harder than what’s left of the UK, it will hit us and we will suffer from the above also. We have also yet to appreciate what a “yes” vote will also lead to in this country. There will be a desire to carry out a “well stuff you Scotland” sentiment by ensuring that we do not lose out any more than we have to by Scotland’s “Yes” vote. “No, you can’t have our currency,” “yes, you will have to pay more to send letters and parcels to the UK,” “no, we’re not going to visit your xenophobic country,” “yes, we are going to start sending the asylum seekers that arrive at Dover straight up to you for you to deal with.”
2. Conservative / Liberal Democrat coalition: A "yes" vote in Scotland will do nothing to help David Cameron's credibility. With pre-election promises to save Queen Mary’s Hospital and then stating that they cannot be held to pre-election (manifesto) promises, the credibility of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats locally is almost non-existent. This doesn’t in itself make them unelectable but we believe that it will result in even greater apathy this time around and, with no other elections taking place on the same day next May, turnout could be at an all-time low. This probably won’t bother the Conservatives locally as, in both local constituencies, the Liberal Democrats are second with Labour some way behind. Nationally, however, it may be a different story due to...
3. UKIP. Not only are UKIP continuing in the ascendancy, a “yes” vote in Scotland (and even, to a lesser extent, a “no” vote) would give them an even greater boost as politicians south of the border fail to protect the interests of those remaining in the UK and we look to a party that will stand up for us and not for its political elite.

As a result of all of this, we at Village News reckon that next year’s general election will be another coalition. That’s the easier part to forecast. The difficult part is in accurately predicting which parties will make up that coalition. Judging by what happened locally this year, we could end up with the Liberal Democrats blown out of the water – and rightly so with some of their potty (and expensive) policies, with the deputy prime Minister being...Nigel Farage.

At least the price of a pint would be safe.

In the meantime, we look forward to an announcement from the Councillors that they will be reducing their total number from 60 to 40 in 2018. For more on this, please see our news item for 29th April 2014.

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